SF - Stifel Financial Corp
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$90.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$90.00
LOW:
$90.00
MEDIAN:
$90.00
CONSENSUS:
$90.00
UPSIDE:
11.39%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
15.5%
9.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.78x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 15.5% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.00x on $29.06 tangible book, implying $105.84 per share. DDM cross-check: $59.82.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$90.00
Analyst Range
$90.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $59.82 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly