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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.6% above fair value
Current Price $139.04
Bear Case $82.60 40.6% downside ($82.60 - $139.04) / $139.04 = -40.6% $5.90 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $100.30 27.9% downside ($100.30 - $139.04) / $139.04 = -27.9% $5.90 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $118.00 15.1% downside ($118.00 - $139.04) / $139.04 = -15.1% $5.90 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
5.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.90, the base-case value is $100.30 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples