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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.6% below fair value
Current Price $170.25
Bear Case $232.26 36.4% upside ($232.26 - $170.25) / $170.25 = 36.4% $16.59 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $282.03 65.7% upside ($282.03 - $170.25) / $170.25 = 65.7% $16.59 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $331.80 94.9% upside ($331.80 - $170.25) / $170.25 = 94.9% $16.59 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
16.59$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 10.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $16.59, the base-case value is $282.03 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples