Sea Limited logo SE - Sea Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $139.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $170.00
LOW: $121.00
MEDIAN: $137.50
CONSENSUS: $139.67
UPSIDE: 60.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 3.6% above fair value
Current Price $87.27
Bear Case $73.73 15.5% downside ($73.73 - $87.27) / $87.27 = -15.5% $2.52 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $84.26 3.5% downside ($84.26 - $87.27) / $87.27 = -3.5% $2.52 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $94.80 8.6% upside ($94.80 - $87.27) / $87.27 = 8.6% $2.52 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
2.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $139.67 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.26 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $194.93 (above our primary estimate by 222%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $139.67 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 57% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples