Sea Limited logo SE - Sea Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 32
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $153.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $156.00
LOW: $152.00
MEDIAN: $153.00
CONSENSUS: $153.67
UPSIDE: 97.16%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.9% above fair value
Current Price $77.94
Bear Case $52.92 32.1% downside ($52.92 - $77.94) / $77.94 = -32.1% $2.52 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $60.48 22.4% downside ($60.48 - $77.94) / $77.94 = -22.4% $2.52 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $68.04 12.7% downside ($68.04 - $77.94) / $77.94 = -12.7% $2.52 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
2.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 30.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 24x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.52, the base-case value is $60.48 per share. DDM cross-check: $194.93.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (44 analysts) $153.67
Analyst Range $152.00 – $156.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 61%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $194.93 (above our primary estimate by 222%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $153.67 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 61% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples