Sea Limited logo SE - Sea Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $133.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $121.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $133.60
UPSIDE: 28.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 26.2% above fair value
Current Price $104.05
Bear Case $72.14 30.7% downside ($72.14 - $104.05) / $104.05 = -30.7% $2.52 × 21x P/E
Fair Value $82.44 20.8% downside ($82.44 - $104.05) / $104.05 = -20.8% $2.52 × 24x P/E
Bull Case $92.75 10.9% downside ($92.75 - $104.05) / $104.05 = -10.9% $2.52 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

24.0x
2.52$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $133.60 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.44 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $194.93 (above our primary estimate by 222%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $133.60 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples