The Charles Schwab Corporation logo SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 19
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $126.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $145.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $127.50
CONSENSUS: $126.50
UPSIDE: 15.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.6% above fair value
Current Price $109.29
Bear Case $62.64 42.7% downside ($62.64 - $109.29) / $109.29 = -42.7% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.60x TBV
Fair Value $77.74 28.9% downside ($77.74 - $109.29) / $109.29 = -28.9% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $101.06 7.5% downside ($101.06 - $109.29) / $109.29 = -7.5% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.3%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 6.29x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 29.3% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $17.39 tangible book, implying $77.74 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (51 analysts) $126.50
Analyst Range $105.00 – $145.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 39%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $126.50 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly