SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$126.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$145.00
LOW:
$105.00
MEDIAN:
$127.50
CONSENSUS:
$126.50
UPSIDE:
15.75%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
29.3%
8.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.29x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 29.3% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $17.39 tangible book, implying $77.74 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (51 analysts)
$126.50
Analyst Range
$105.00 – $145.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $126.50 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly