SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$121.89
DETAILS
HIGH:
$137.00
LOW:
$105.00
MEDIAN:
$125.00
CONSENSUS:
$121.89
UPSIDE:
35.21%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
29.3%
8.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
5.18x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $121.89 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.19 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $121.89 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly