The Charles Schwab Corporation logo SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 20
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $118.93 DETAILS
HIGH: $145.00
LOW: $95.00
MEDIAN: $117.00
CONSENSUS: $118.93
UPSIDE: 30.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 17.2% above fair value
Current Price $91.14
Bear Case $60.81 33.3% downside ($60.81 - $91.14) / $91.14 = -33.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.48x TBV
Fair Value $77.74 14.7% downside ($77.74 - $91.14) / $91.14 = -14.7% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $101.06 10.9% upside ($101.06 - $91.14) / $91.14 = 10.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.3%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.21x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 29.3% vs. 8.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $17.49 tangible book, implying $77.74 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (51 analysts) $118.93
Analyst Range $95.00 – $145.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 35%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $118.93 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly