The Charles Schwab Corporation logo SCHW - The Charles Schwab Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 18
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $121.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $137.00
LOW: $105.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $121.89
UPSIDE: 35.21%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.3% below fair value
Current Price $90.15
Bear Case $71.21 21.0% downside ($71.21 - $90.15) / $90.15 = -21.0% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.42x TBV
Fair Value $93.19 3.4% upside ($93.19 - $90.15) / $90.15 = 3.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $121.15 34.4% upside ($121.15 - $90.15) / $90.15 = 34.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

29.3%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.18x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $121.89 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $93.19 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $121.89 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly