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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $111.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $137.00
LOW: $95.00
MEDIAN: $107.50
CONSENSUS: $111.75
DOWNSIDE: 1.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.0% above fair value
Current Price $113.31
Bear Case $103.99 8.2% downside ($103.99 - $113.31) / $113.31 = -8.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $103.99 8.2% downside ($103.99 - $113.31) / $113.31 = -8.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $115.15 1.6% upside ($115.15 - $113.31) / $113.31 = 1.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 13.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 4.0% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.75 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.99 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions