Red River Bancshares, Inc. logo RRBI - Red River Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $94.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $94.00
MEDIAN: $94.00
CONSENSUS: $94.00
DOWNSIDE: 1.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.4% below fair value
Current Price $95.48
Bear Case $101.14 5.9% upside ($101.14 - $95.48) / $95.48 = 5.9% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.83x TBV
Fair Value $162.83 70.5% upside ($162.83 - $95.48) / $95.48 = 70.5% ROTCE 11.8% → 2.95x TBV
Bull Case $199.84 109.3% upside ($199.84 - $95.48) / $95.48 = 109.3% ROTCE 13.5% → 3.62x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.8%
6.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.8%) vs. cost of equity (6.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.73x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.8% vs. 6.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.95x on $55.22 tangible book, implying $162.83 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly