Repay Holdings Corporation logo RPAY - Repay Holdings Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $3.50
MEDIAN: $3.75
CONSENSUS: $5.00
UPSIDE: 43.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.1% above fair value
Current Price $3.49
Bear Case $0.61 82.6% downside ($0.61 - $3.49) / $3.49 = -82.6% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $3.17 9.2% downside ($3.17 - $3.49) / $3.49 = -9.2% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $5.73 64.3% upside ($5.73 - $3.49) / $3.49 = 64.3% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 6.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $3.17 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($3.65) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case