RLI Corp. logo RLI - RLI Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $58.00
CONSENSUS: $56.33
DOWNSIDE: 4.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.4% below fair value
Current Price $59.03
Bear Case $63.26 7.2% upside ($63.26 - $59.03) / $59.03 = 7.2% ROTCE 19.5% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $77.09 30.6% upside ($77.09 - $59.03) / $59.03 = 30.6% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $100.21 69.8% upside ($100.21 - $59.03) / $59.03 = 69.8% ROTCE 29.9% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

26.0%
6.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (26.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.09 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $56.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly