RF Industries, Ltd. logo RFIL - RF Industries, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 201.2% above fair value
Current Price $18.75
Bear Case $3.58 80.9% downside ($3.58 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -80.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $6.22 66.8% downside ($6.22 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -66.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $9.03 51.8% downside ($9.03 - $18.75) / $18.75 = -51.8% 17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 60.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $6.22 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 1163% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions