Regency Centers Corporation logo REG - Regency Centers Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $84.15 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $84.15
UPSIDE: 17.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.9% below fair value
Current Price $71.77
Bear Case $73.71 2.7% upside ($73.71 - $71.77) / $71.77 = 2.7% $4.98 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $90.72 26.4% upside ($90.72 - $71.77) / $71.77 = 26.4% $4.98 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $107.73 50.1% upside ($107.73 - $71.77) / $71.77 = 50.1% $4.98 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
4.98$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.98) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.98 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $90.72 per share. Dividend yield: 4.2%. DDM cross-check: $75.60.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $84.15
Analyst Range $77.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify