Regency Centers Corporation logo REG - Regency Centers Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $81.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $85.75
UPSIDE: 7.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.8% below fair value
Current Price $79.94
Bear Case $72.78 9.0% downside ($72.78 - $79.94) / $79.94 = -9.0% $5.09 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $89.63 12.1% upside ($89.63 - $79.94) / $79.94 = 12.1% $5.09 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $106.49 33.2% upside ($106.49 - $79.94) / $79.94 = 33.2% $5.09 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
5.09$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.09) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.75 from 32 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.63 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify