Regency Centers Corporation logo REG - Regency Centers Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $86.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $92.00
LOW: $83.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $86.63
UPSIDE: 14.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.3% below fair value
Current Price $75.52
Bear Case $75.04 0.6% downside ($75.04 - $75.52) / $75.52 = -0.6% $5.11 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $92.38 22.3% upside ($92.38 - $75.52) / $75.52 = 22.3% $5.11 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $109.73 45.3% upside ($109.73 - $75.52) / $75.52 = 45.3% $5.11 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
5.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($5.11) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $5.11 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $92.38 per share. Dividend yield: 4.0%. DDM cross-check: $75.60.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $86.63
Analyst Range $83.00 – $92.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify