RBB Bancorp logo RBB - RBB Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 0
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $22.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $23.00
LOW: $21.00
MEDIAN: $22.00
CONSENSUS: $22.00
DOWNSIDE: 7.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.5% below fair value
Current Price $23.76
Bear Case $16.88 29.0% downside ($16.88 - $23.76) / $23.76 = -29.0% ROTCE 5.3% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $24.11 1.5% upside ($24.11 - $23.76) / $23.76 = 1.5% ROTCE 7.1% → 0.50x TBV
Bull Case $31.34 31.9% upside ($31.34 - $23.76) / $23.76 = 31.9% ROTCE 8.2% → 0.68x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
10.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.89x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.11 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.1%) is below the minimum investors require (10.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.92 (60% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly