RBB Bancorp logo RBB - RBB Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $29.00
UPSIDE: 9.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.9% above fair value
Current Price $26.59
Bear Case $17.25 35.1% downside ($17.25 - $26.59) / $26.59 = -35.1% ROTCE 5.3% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $24.64 7.3% downside ($24.64 - $26.59) / $26.59 = -7.3% ROTCE 7.1% → 0.52x TBV
Bull Case $32.03 20.5% upside ($32.03 - $26.59) / $26.59 = 20.5% ROTCE 8.2% → 0.70x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
9.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.0x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 7.1% vs. 9.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.52x on $26.60 tangible book, implying $24.64 per share. DDM cross-check: $9.65.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (7 analysts) $29.00
Analyst Range $29.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 15%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.1%) is below the minimum investors require (9.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.65 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly