QuinStreet, Inc. logo QNST - QuinStreet, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 4
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 22.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 63.2% below fair value
Current Price $12.29
Bear Case $20.83 69.5% upside ($20.83 - $12.29) / $12.29 = 69.5% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.41 171.8% upside ($33.41 - $12.29) / $12.29 = 171.8% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $47.98 290.4% upside ($47.98 - $12.29) / $12.29 = 290.4% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 10.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $33.41 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 675% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 153% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions