Qiagen N.V. logo QGEN - Qiagen N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.12 DETAILS
HIGH: $59.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $44.12
UPSIDE: 8.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.3% above fair value
Current Price $40.48
Bear Case $29.09 28.1% downside ($29.09 - $40.48) / $40.48 = -28.1% $2.20 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $36.36 10.2% downside ($36.36 - $40.48) / $40.48 = -10.2% $2.20 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $43.63 7.8% upside ($43.63 - $40.48) / $40.48 = 7.8% $2.20 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.12 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.36 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 203% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.12 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 25% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples