Perella Weinberg Partners logo PWP - Perella Weinberg Partners

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.00
UPSIDE: 3.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.1% above fair value
Current Price $15.52
Bear Case $7.70 50.4% downside ($7.70 - $15.52) / $15.52 = -50.4% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $11.00 29.1% downside ($11.00 - $15.52) / $15.52 = -29.1% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $14.30 7.9% downside ($14.30 - $15.52) / $15.52 = -7.9% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
13.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.0%) vs. cost of equity (13.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.82x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 0.0% vs. 13.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $5.50 tangible book, implying $11.00 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.0%) is below the minimum investors require (13.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly