Perella Weinberg Partners logo PWP - Perella Weinberg Partners

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 0
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $21.00
LOW: $19.50
MEDIAN: $20.25
CONSENSUS: $20.25
UPSIDE: 8.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 69.8% above fair value
Current Price $18.68
Bear Case $7.70 58.8% downside ($7.70 - $18.68) / $18.68 = -58.8% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $11.00 41.1% downside ($11.00 - $18.68) / $18.68 = -41.1% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $14.30 23.4% downside ($14.30 - $18.68) / $18.68 = -23.4% ROTCE 0.0% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.0%
13.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.0%) vs. cost of equity (13.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.4x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 0.0% vs. 13.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $5.50 tangible book, implying $11.00 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (0.0%) is below the minimum investors require (13.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly