The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. logo PNC - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $272.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $305.00
LOW: $240.00
MEDIAN: $275.00
CONSENSUS: $272.80
UPSIDE: 22.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.4% below fair value
Current Price $222.89
Bear Case $155.53 30.2% downside ($155.53 - $222.89) / $222.89 = -30.2% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.35x TBV
Fair Value $235.72 5.8% upside ($235.72 - $222.89) / $222.89 = 5.8% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.05x TBV
Bull Case $283.83 27.3% upside ($283.83 - $222.89) / $222.89 = 27.3% ROTCE 17.4% → 2.46x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.93x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 9.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.05x on $115.22 tangible book, implying $235.72 per share. DDM cross-check: $183.33.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $272.80
Analyst Range $240.00 – $305.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 14%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly