The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. logo PNC - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $252.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $277.00
LOW: $206.00
MEDIAN: $261.50
CONSENSUS: $252.63
UPSIDE: 15.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 8.6% below fair value
Current Price $219.23
Bear Case $158.27 27.8% downside ($158.27 - $219.23) / $219.23 = -27.8% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.35x TBV
Fair Value $239.88 9.4% upside ($239.88 - $219.23) / $219.23 = 9.4% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.05x TBV
Bull Case $288.84 31.8% upside ($288.84 - $219.23) / $219.23 = 31.8% ROTCE 17.4% → 2.47x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.92x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $252.63 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $239.88 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $174.45 (26% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly