The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. logo PNC - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 22
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $279.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $305.00
LOW: $257.00
MEDIAN: $280.00
CONSENSUS: $279.36
UPSIDE: 13.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.2% below fair value
Current Price $245.60
Bear Case $162.43 33.9% downside ($162.43 - $245.60) / $245.60 = -33.9% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.41x TBV
Fair Value $246.17 0.2% upside ($246.17 - $245.60) / $245.60 = 0.2% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.14x TBV
Bull Case $296.42 20.7% upside ($296.42 - $245.60) / $245.60 = 20.7% ROTCE 17.4% → 2.57x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.13x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.1% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.14x on $115.21 tangible book, implying $246.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $189.17.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (46 analysts) $279.36
Analyst Range $257.00 – $305.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly