The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. logo PNC - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 23
HOLD 22
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $279.36 DETAILS
HIGH: $305.00
LOW: $257.00
MEDIAN: $280.00
CONSENSUS: $279.36
UPSIDE: 10.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.4% below fair value
Current Price $252.51
Bear Case $167.33 33.7% downside ($167.33 - $252.51) / $252.51 = -33.7% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.40x TBV
Fair Value $253.59 0.4% upside ($253.59 - $252.51) / $252.51 = 0.4% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.12x TBV
Bull Case $305.35 20.9% upside ($305.35 - $252.51) / $252.51 = 20.9% ROTCE 17.4% → 2.55x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.21x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $279.36 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $253.59 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly