The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. logo PNC - The PNC Financial Services Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 22
HOLD 23
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $269.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $288.00
LOW: $235.00
MEDIAN: $274.00
CONSENSUS: $269.50
UPSIDE: 6.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.5% above fair value
Current Price $251.91
Bear Case $165.37 34.4% downside ($165.37 - $251.91) / $251.91 = -34.4% ROTCE 11.3% → 1.40x TBV
Fair Value $250.63 0.5% downside ($250.63 - $251.91) / $251.91 = -0.5% ROTCE 15.1% → 2.12x TBV
Bull Case $301.78 19.8% upside ($301.78 - $251.91) / $251.91 = 19.8% ROTCE 17.4% → 2.55x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.1%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $269.50 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $250.63 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly