Packaging Corporation of America logo PKG - Packaging Corporation of America

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $272.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $312.00
LOW: $246.00
MEDIAN: $272.00
CONSENSUS: $272.86
UPSIDE: 13.51%
AlphaQuality

AlphaQuality

Quantitative six-pillar business-quality grade

Stable Earnings Power

AlphaQuality — archetype-weighted quantitative grade

B 71.2 / 100 composite

Composite Grade

Composite of six pillars weighted for stable earnings power businesses. Purely quantitative — the six pillars score only reported financials, no analyst input.

Profitability

Weight: 20%
C+ 57.7
  • 5yr Avg ROIC 12.8% 73/100
  • Operating Margin Trend -0.89 pp/yr 23/100
Contributes 11.5 pts toward composite.

Capital Efficiency

Weight: 15%
A 89.1
  • 5yr Avg ROE 21.1% 94/100
  • 5yr Share-Count CAGR -1.0% 80/100
Contributes 13.4 pts toward composite.

Growth Quality

Weight: 15%
B 74.4
  • 5yr Revenue CAGR 6.2% 66/100
  • 5yr EPS CAGR 12.1% 82/100
  • Revenue-Growth Years (5) 4/5 80/100
Contributes 11.2 pts toward composite.

Cash Generation

Weight: 15%
B 69.1
  • 5yr FCF Margin 7.9% 62/100
  • 5yr FCF/NI Conversion 0.79x 78/100
Contributes 10.4 pts toward composite.

Balance Sheet

Weight: 20%
A- 81.0
  • Net Debt / EBITDA 2.14x 67/100
  • Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int) 13.99x 91/100
  • Altman Z-Score 3.93 94/100
Contributes 16.2 pts toward composite.

Stability

Weight: 15%
C 57.0
  • EPS Volatility (σ/μ) 0.28 60/100
  • Negative-Revenue Years (5) 1/5 80/100
  • Piotroski F-Score 3 33/100
Contributes 8.5 pts toward composite.

Guru Flow

Curated superinvestor sentiment — not part of the AlphaQuality grade.
Dumping

2 of 2 gurus held; 2 added; 2 full exits.

Holders
2 +1
Avg Δ position
+68.9%
New buys
0
Full exits
2
As of Q2 2026
How this is calculated

AlphaQuality grades six pillars from 0-100 and weights each by archetype:

  • Profitability (20%) — 5yr Avg ROIC, Operating Margin Trend
  • Capital Efficiency (15%) — 5yr Avg ROE, 5yr Share-Count CAGR
  • Growth Quality (15%) — 5yr Revenue CAGR, 5yr EPS CAGR, Revenue-Growth Years (5)
  • Cash Generation (15%) — 5yr FCF Margin, 5yr FCF/NI Conversion
  • Balance Sheet (20%) — Net Debt / EBITDA, Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int), Altman Z-Score
  • Stability (15%) — EPS Volatility (σ/μ), Negative-Revenue Years (5), Piotroski F-Score

The six pillars read only reported financial-statement fields — no analyst targets or consensus ratings. The archetype that picks which pillar formulas apply is not fully price-free, though: it can route a company to the distressed/ungradable archetype based on price vs. its 52-week high, and beta affects one classification check. A minimum of 5 fiscal years of audited statements is required. Insurers and banks are graded on their own methodology — insurers on loss ratio, its trend and stability, and premiums-to-surplus; banks on the efficiency ratio, its trend and stability, and equity-to-assets — rather than on industrial margin/ROIC signals. Distressed, highly leveraged infrastructure, asset-manager, and other financial businesses are declared ungradable rather than forced into a numeric score.