AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Packaging Corporation of America's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag PKG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Packaging Corporation of America's fair value?

Fair value for PKG is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value PKG?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from PKG's most recent reported fundamentals.

PKG - Packaging Corporation of America

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $251.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 30.7% above fair value

Current Price $215.91

Bear Case $132.15 38.8% downside ($132.15 - $215.91) / $215.91 = -38.8% $9.09 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $165.19 23.5% downside ($165.19 - $215.91) / $215.91 = -23.5% $9.09 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $198.22 8.2% downside ($198.22 - $215.91) / $215.91 = -8.2% $9.09 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

9.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $251.75 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $165.19 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $251.75 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples