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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.75
UPSIDE: 88.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 82.5% below fair value
Current Price $8.88
Bear Case $42.48 378.4% upside ($42.48 - $8.88) / $8.88 = 378.4% $1.57 × 27x P/E
Fair Value $50.74 471.4% upside ($50.74 - $8.88) / $8.88 = 471.4% $1.57 × 32x P/E
Bull Case $59.00 564.5% upside ($59.00 - $8.88) / $8.88 = 564.5% $1.57 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

32.2x
1.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 5.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.57, the base-case value is $50.74 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1869 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples