Parker-Hannifin Corporation logo PH - Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,047.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,147.00
LOW: $1,000.00
MEDIAN: $1,038.00
CONSENSUS: $1,047.00
UPSIDE: 20.77%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 15.6% above fair value
Current Price $866.96
Bear Case $478.43 44.8% downside ($478.43 - $866.96) / $866.96 = -44.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $749.78 13.5% downside ($749.78 - $866.96) / $866.96 = -13.5% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,038.14 19.7% upside ($1,038.14 - $866.96) / $866.96 = 19.7% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 41%
Implied Market Multiple 36.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1047.00 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $749.78 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1047.00 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions