Parker-Hannifin Corporation logo PH - Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,165.44 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,358.00
LOW: $1,050.00
MEDIAN: $1,210.00
CONSENSUS: $1,165.44
UPSIDE: 21.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 70.2% above fair value
Current Price $962.56
Bear Case $424.79 55.9% downside ($424.79 - $962.56) / $962.56 = -55.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $565.53 41.2% downside ($565.53 - $962.56) / $962.56 = -41.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $698.65 27.4% downside ($698.65 - $962.56) / $962.56 = -27.4% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 31.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.1% vs our 8.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $565.53 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (40 analysts) $1165.44
Analyst Range $1050.00 – $1358.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 51%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $1165.44 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions