Parker-Hannifin Corporation logo PH - Parker-Hannifin Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 13
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,057.42 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,269.00
LOW: $950.00
MEDIAN: $1,044.00
CONSENSUS: $1,057.42
UPSIDE: 10.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.2% above fair value
Current Price $961.27
Bear Case $465.81 51.5% downside ($465.81 - $961.27) / $961.27 = -51.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $685.70 28.7% downside ($685.70 - $961.27) / $961.27 = -28.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $907.90 5.6% downside ($907.90 - $961.27) / $961.27 = -5.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 40.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 18.4% vs our 11.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1057.42 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $685.70 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1057.42 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions