The Progressive Corporation logo PGR - The Progressive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 20
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $228.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $259.00
LOW: $208.00
MEDIAN: $224.50
CONSENSUS: $228.33
UPSIDE: 14.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.2% below fair value
Current Price $199.51
Bear Case $204.00 2.3% upside ($204.00 - $199.51) / $199.51 = 2.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $204.00 2.3% upside ($204.00 - $199.51) / $199.51 = 2.3% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $204.00 2.3% upside ($204.00 - $199.51) / $199.51 = 2.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

40.0%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (40.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.12x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $228.33 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $204.00 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly