The Progressive Corporation logo PGR - The Progressive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 22
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $225.92 DETAILS
HIGH: $259.00
LOW: $198.00
MEDIAN: $225.00
CONSENSUS: $225.92
UPSIDE: 2.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.6% above fair value
Current Price $219.52
Bear Case $203.97 7.1% downside ($203.97 - $219.52) / $219.52 = -7.1% ROTCE 20.0% → 4.00x TBV
Fair Value $203.97 7.1% downside ($203.97 - $219.52) / $219.52 = -7.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $203.97 7.1% downside ($203.97 - $219.52) / $219.52 = -7.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

40.0%
6.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (40.0%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.51x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $225.92 from 41 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $203.97 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly