Principal Financial Group, Inc. logo PFG - Principal Financial Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 15
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $98.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $111.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $98.86
DOWNSIDE: 5.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.3% below fair value
Current Price $104.52
Bear Case $78.10 25.3% downside ($78.10 - $104.52) / $104.52 = -25.3% ROTCE 18.0% → 2.67x TBV
Fair Value $111.56 6.7% upside ($111.56 - $104.52) / $104.52 = 6.7% ROTCE 24.0% → 3.82x TBV
Bull Case $145.03 38.8% upside ($145.03 - $104.52) / $104.52 = 38.8% ROTCE 27.6% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

24.0%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (24.0%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 4.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $98.86 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.56 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $71.70 (38% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly