Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated logo PEG - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $81.00
MEDIAN: $91.00
CONSENSUS: $90.50
UPSIDE: 13.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.0% above fair value
Current Price $79.51
Bear Case $65.01 18.2% downside ($65.01 - $79.51) / $79.51 = -18.2% $4.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $74.30 6.6% downside ($74.30 - $79.51) / $79.51 = -6.6% $4.21 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $83.59 5.1% upside ($83.59 - $79.51) / $79.51 = 5.1% $4.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.50 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.30 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $90.50 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples