Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated logo PEG - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $91.00
LOW: $78.00
MEDIAN: $82.50
CONSENSUS: $83.50
UPSIDE: 13.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 8.9% above fair value
Current Price $73.33
Bear Case $58.94 19.6% downside ($58.94 - $73.33) / $73.33 = -19.6% $4.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $67.36 8.1% downside ($67.36 - $73.33) / $73.33 = -8.1% $4.21 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $75.78 3.3% upside ($75.78 - $73.33) / $73.33 = 3.3% $4.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.21, the base-case value is $67.36 per share. DDM cross-check: $76.27.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $83.50
Analyst Range $78.00 – $91.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 19%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples