Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated logo PEG - Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $81.00
MEDIAN: $89.50
CONSENSUS: $88.38
UPSIDE: 9.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.8% above fair value
Current Price $80.89
Bear Case $64.46 20.3% downside ($64.46 - $80.89) / $80.89 = -20.3% $4.21 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $73.67 8.9% downside ($73.67 - $80.89) / $80.89 = -8.9% $4.21 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $82.87 2.5% upside ($82.87 - $80.89) / $80.89 = 2.5% $4.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
4.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $88.38 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $73.67 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples