PACCAR Inc logo PCAR - PACCAR Inc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 13
HOLD 28
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $127.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $139.00
LOW: $109.00
MEDIAN: $126.00
CONSENSUS: $127.40
UPSIDE: 16.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $109.35
Bear Case $101.52 7.2% downside ($101.52 - $109.35) / $109.35 = -7.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $121.40 11.0% upside ($121.40 - $109.35) / $109.35 = 11.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $139.57 27.6% upside ($139.57 - $109.35) / $109.35 = 27.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 15.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $127.40 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $121.40 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions