Everpure, Inc. logo P - Everpure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 33
HOLD 11
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $94.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $115.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $95.50
CONSENSUS: $94.38
UPSIDE: 26.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.5% above fair value
Current Price $74.57
Bear Case $31.80 57.4% downside ($31.80 - $74.57) / $74.57 = -57.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $48.58 34.9% downside ($48.58 - $74.57) / $74.57 = -34.9% 17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $68.30 8.4% downside ($68.30 - $74.57) / $74.57 = -8.4% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

17.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (17% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 92.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 31.7% vs our 17.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.38 from 46 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.58 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 256% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $94.38 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions