Otis Worldwide Corporation logo OTIS - Otis Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $88.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $88.67
UPSIDE: 26.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 33.6% above fair value
Current Price $70.15
Bear Case $42.00 40.1% downside ($42.00 - $70.15) / $70.15 = -40.1% $3.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.50 25.2% downside ($52.50 - $70.15) / $70.15 = -25.2% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $63.00 10.2% downside ($63.00 - $70.15) / $70.15 = -10.2% $3.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.50, the base-case value is $52.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $88.67
Analyst Range $75.00 – $105.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 41%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $88.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples