Otis Worldwide Corporation logo OTIS - Otis Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $105.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $97.00
CONSENSUS: $93.00
UPSIDE: 28.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.2% above fair value
Current Price $72.56
Bear Case $49.13 32.3% downside ($49.13 - $72.56) / $72.56 = -32.3% $3.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $61.41 15.4% downside ($61.41 - $72.56) / $72.56 = -15.4% $3.57 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $73.69 1.6% upside ($73.69 - $72.56) / $72.56 = 1.6% $3.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $61.41 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $93.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples