Otis Worldwide Corporation logo OTIS - Otis Worldwide Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $75.00
MEDIAN: $90.00
CONSENSUS: $85.40
UPSIDE: 13.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 43.9% above fair value
Current Price $75.53
Bear Case $42.00 44.4% downside ($42.00 - $75.53) / $75.53 = -44.4% $3.50 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $52.50 30.5% downside ($52.50 - $75.53) / $75.53 = -30.5% $3.50 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $63.00 16.6% downside ($63.00 - $75.53) / $75.53 = -16.6% $3.50 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.5$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 21.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.50, the base-case value is $52.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $85.40
Analyst Range $75.00 – $95.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 39%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $85.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples