Ormat Technologies, Inc. logo ORA - Ormat Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $132.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $152.00
LOW: $112.00
MEDIAN: $135.00
CONSENSUS: $132.14
UPSIDE: 36.72%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 117.5% above fair value
Current Price $96.65
Bear Case $36.36 62.4% downside ($36.36 - $96.65) / $96.65 = -62.4% $2.02 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $44.44 54.0% downside ($44.44 - $96.65) / $96.65 = -54.0% $2.02 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $52.52 45.7% downside ($52.52 - $96.65) / $96.65 = -45.7% $2.02 × 26x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.0x
2.02$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 47.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.02, the base-case value is $44.44 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $132.14
Analyst Range $112.00 – $152.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 66%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $132.14 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples