Omega Flex, Inc. logo OFLX - Omega Flex, Inc.

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.4% below fair value
Current Price $24.29
Bear Case $24.72 1.8% upside ($24.72 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 1.8% $2.06 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $30.90 27.2% upside ($30.90 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 27.2% $2.06 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $37.08 52.7% upside ($37.08 - $24.29) / $24.29 = 52.7% $2.06 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.06, the base-case value is $30.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.58.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 40%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
⚠ The company pays out 93% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $22.58 (below our primary estimate by 27%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples