AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Origin Bancorp, Inc. as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag OBK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Origin Bancorp, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for OBK comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value OBK?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. OBK was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from OBK's most recent reported fundamentals.

OBK - Origin Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $55.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 78.6% above fair value

Current Price $53.25

Bear Case $20.87 60.8% downside ($20.87 - $53.25) / $53.25 = -60.8% ROTCE 5.2% → 0.30x TBV

Fair Value $29.81 44.0% downside ($29.81 - $53.25) / $53.25 = -44.0% ROTCE 6.9% → 0.69x TBV

Bull Case $38.75 27.2% downside ($38.75 - $53.25) / $53.25 = -27.2% ROTCE 8.0% → 0.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

6.9%

Cost of Equity

8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (6.9%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 1.52x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 6.9% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.69x on $35.10 tangible book, implying $29.81 per share. DDM cross-check: $103.84.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $55.00

Analyst Range $54.00 – $56.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 46%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

⚠ Return on equity (6.9%) is below the minimum investors require (8.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $103.84 (248% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $55.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly