Nextpower Inc. logo NXT - Nextpower Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 24
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $142.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $177.00
LOW: $111.00
MEDIAN: $142.00
CONSENSUS: $142.80
UPSIDE: 9.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.0% above fair value
Current Price $130.50
Bear Case $75.92 41.8% downside ($75.92 - $130.50) / $130.50 = -41.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $117.52 9.9% downside ($117.52 - $130.50) / $130.50 = -9.9% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $165.08 26.5% upside ($165.08 - $130.50) / $130.50 = 26.5% 21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 36.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $142.80 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.52 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions