Nextpower Inc. logo NXT - Nextpower Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 25
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $151.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $179.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $151.22
CONSENSUS: $151.82
UPSIDE: 43.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.7% below fair value
Current Price $106.02
Bear Case $76.60 27.8% downside ($76.60 - $106.02) / $106.02 = -27.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $118.77 12.0% upside ($118.77 - $106.02) / $106.02 = 12.0% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $166.99 57.5% upside ($166.99 - $106.02) / $106.02 = 57.5% 21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

16.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (16% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 29.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 16.1% vs our 16.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $151.82 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $118.77 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $151.82 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions