AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag NXST as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Nexstar Media Group, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for NXST is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value NXST?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from NXST's most recent reported fundamentals.

NXST - Nexstar Media Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $250.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Leveraged Infrastructure 80% confidence

Primary model: EV/EBITDA × Cable Broadband Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 14.3% below fair value

Current Price $164.01

Bear Case $105.13 35.9% downside ($105.13 - $164.01) / $164.01 = -35.9% EBITDA $1B × 7.2x − $7B debt

Fair Value $191.39 16.7% upside ($191.39 - $164.01) / $164.01 = 16.7% EBITDA $1B × 9.0x − $7B debt

Bull Case $277.63 69.3% upside ($277.63 - $164.01) / $164.01 = 69.3% EBITDA $1B × 10.8x − $7B debt

Adjust Assumptions

EV/EBITDA Multiple

9.0x

Key Value Driver

EV/EBITDA multiple (9.0x) vs. 5.0× leverage

Implied Market Multiple 8.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses EV/EBITDA × Cable Broadband Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $250.00 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $191.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt is 5.0x annual operating profit. Because the company carries so much debt, even small shifts in business value cause big swings in the stock price.

ℹ We value this business based on total operating profit relative to total enterprise value (debt + equity). Profit-per-share metrics are unreliable when debt makes up most of the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $250.00 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Debt refinancing at higher rates compresses equity value quickly
EBITDA flatters — capex, interest, and taxes eat the cash flow
Cord-cutting and wireless substitution are structural headwinds for cable