Northwest Bancshares, Inc. logo NWBI - Northwest Bancshares, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 9
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $15.00
MEDIAN: $15.50
CONSENSUS: $15.50
UPSIDE: 3.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.2% below fair value
Current Price $15.04
Bear Case $10.99 27.0% downside ($10.99 - $15.04) / $15.04 = -27.0% ROTCE 6.7% → 0.69x TBV
Fair Value $15.70 4.4% upside ($15.70 - $15.04) / $15.04 = 4.4% ROTCE 9.0% → 1.26x TBV
Bull Case $20.41 35.7% upside ($20.41 - $15.04) / $15.04 = 35.7% ROTCE 10.3% → 1.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.0%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.0%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.56x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.50 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly