nVent Electric plc logo NVT - nVent Electric plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $204.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $225.00
LOW: $187.00
MEDIAN: $205.00
CONSENSUS: $204.17
UPSIDE: 25.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 196.5% above fair value
Current Price $162.57
Bear Case $33.11 79.6% downside ($33.11 - $162.57) / $162.57 = -79.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $54.84 66.3% downside ($54.84 - $162.57) / $162.57 = -66.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $78.47 51.7% downside ($78.47 - $162.57) / $162.57 = -51.7% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 69.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 27.7% vs our 14.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $54.84 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $204.17
Analyst Range $187.00 – $225.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 73%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $204.17 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions