nVent Electric plc logo NVT - nVent Electric plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $189.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $220.00
LOW: $130.00
MEDIAN: $190.00
CONSENSUS: $189.82
UPSIDE: 25.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.0% above fair value
Current Price $151.79
Bear Case $48.33 68.2% downside ($48.33 - $151.79) / $151.79 = -68.2% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $81.61 46.2% downside ($81.61 - $151.79) / $151.79 = -46.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $117.83 22.4% downside ($117.83 - $151.79) / $151.79 = -22.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 75.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 29.0% vs our 14.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $189.82 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.61 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $189.82 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions