nVent Electric plc logo NVT - nVent Electric plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $180.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $130.00
MEDIAN: $187.00
CONSENSUS: $180.29
UPSIDE: 9.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 107.8% above fair value
Current Price $164.66
Bear Case $46.92 71.5% downside ($46.92 - $164.66) / $164.66 = -71.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $79.23 51.9% downside ($79.23 - $164.66) / $164.66 = -51.9% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $114.39 30.5% downside ($114.39 - $164.66) / $164.66 = -30.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 81.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.29 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.23 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $180.29 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions