nVent Electric plc logo NVT - nVent Electric plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $203.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $225.00
LOW: $182.00
MEDIAN: $205.00
CONSENSUS: $203.86
UPSIDE: 62.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 128.9% above fair value
Current Price $125.40
Bear Case $33.08 73.6% downside ($33.08 - $125.40) / $125.40 = -73.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $54.79 56.3% downside ($54.79 - $125.40) / $125.40 = -56.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $78.41 37.5% downside ($78.41 - $125.40) / $125.40 = -37.5% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

14.3%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 54.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 24.4% vs our 14.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $54.79 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $203.86
Analyst Range $182.00 – $225.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 73%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $203.86 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 73% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions