NetApp, Inc. logo NTAP - NetApp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 36
SELL 9
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $180.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $185.00
CONSENSUS: $180.00
UPSIDE: 3.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 39.5% above fair value
Current Price $174.53
Bear Case $100.07 42.7% downside ($100.07 - $174.53) / $174.53 = -42.7% $6.37 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $125.09 28.3% downside ($125.09 - $174.53) / $174.53 = -28.3% $6.37 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $150.12 14.0% downside ($150.12 - $174.53) / $174.53 = -14.0% $6.37 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.37$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 27.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.00 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.09 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $180.00 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples