NetApp, Inc. logo NTAP - NetApp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 37
SELL 8
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $197.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $225.00
LOW: $170.00
MEDIAN: $191.00
CONSENSUS: $197.00
DOWNSIDE: 1.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 108.9% above fair value
Current Price $199.28
Bear Case $76.32 61.7% downside ($76.32 - $199.28) / $199.28 = -61.7% $6.36 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $95.40 52.1% downside ($95.40 - $199.28) / $199.28 = -52.1% $6.36 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $114.48 42.6% downside ($114.48 - $199.28) / $199.28 = -42.6% $6.36 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.36$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 31.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.36, the base-case value is $95.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $30.01.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (71 analysts) $197.00
Analyst Range $170.00 – $225.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 52%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $197.00 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples