NetApp, Inc. logo NTAP - NetApp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 36
SELL 9
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $120.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $137.00
LOW: $89.00
MEDIAN: $124.00
CONSENSUS: $120.50
DOWNSIDE: 13.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 42.7% above fair value
Current Price $139.36
Bear Case $78.11 44.0% downside ($78.11 - $139.36) / $139.36 = -44.0% $5.69 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $97.64 29.9% downside ($97.64 - $139.36) / $139.36 = -29.9% $5.69 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $117.17 15.9% downside ($117.17 - $139.36) / $139.36 = -15.9% $5.69 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.69$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.50 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $97.64 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 65%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $120.50 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples