NTAP - NetApp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$180.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$200.00
LOW:
$150.00
MEDIAN:
$185.00
CONSENSUS:
$180.00
UPSIDE:
3.13%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
6.37$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
27.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $180.00 from 71 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $125.09 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $30.01 (below our primary estimate by 69%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $180.00 (from 71 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples