AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies National Fuel Gas Company as a Oil & Gas E&P business and values it using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag NFG as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is National Fuel Gas Company's fair value?

Fair value for NFG comes from a FCF at Price Deck × Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Oil & Gas E&P classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value NFG?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. NFG was classified as Oil & Gas E&P and is valued using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, built from NFG's most recent reported fundamentals.

NFG - National Fuel Gas Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $88.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 285.3% above fair value

Current Price $83.83

Bear Case $3.23 96.1% downside ($3.23 - $83.83) / $83.83 = -96.1% FCF $258M × 12x

Fair Value $21.76 74.0% downside ($21.76 - $83.83) / $83.83 = -74.0% FCF $304M × 16x

Bull Case $44.12 47.4% downside ($44.12 - $83.83) / $83.83 = -47.4% FCF $349M × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

16.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 35.4x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 16x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $21.76 per share. Range: $3.23 (bear) to $44.12 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $88.50

Analyst Range $76.00 – $101.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 75%

Warnings

⚠ Debt per share ($29.35) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -96%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $88.50 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 75% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential