Northfield Bancorp, Inc. logo NFBK - Northfield Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $14.50
LOW: $14.50
MEDIAN: $14.50
CONSENSUS: $14.50
UPSIDE: 2.33%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.8% above fair value
Current Price $14.17
Bear Case $7.59 46.4% downside ($7.59 - $14.17) / $14.17 = -46.4% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $10.84 23.5% downside ($10.84 - $14.17) / $14.17 = -23.5% ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $14.09 0.6% downside ($14.09 - $14.17) / $14.17 = -0.6% ROTCE 0.1% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.1%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.86x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.50 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (0.1%) is below the minimum investors require (8.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $14.50 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly