National CineMedia, Inc. logo NCMI - National CineMedia, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 6
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $7.00
MEDIAN: $7.50
CONSENSUS: $7.50
UPSIDE: 150.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.9% below fair value
Current Price $2.99
Bear Case $7.36 146.2% upside ($7.36 - $2.99) / $2.99 = 146.2% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $9.31 211.5% upside ($9.31 - $2.99) / $2.99 = 211.5% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $11.16 273.1% upside ($11.16 - $2.99) / $2.99 = 273.1% 11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 4.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.50 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $9.31 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $7.50 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions