National Bank Holdings Corporation logo NBHC - National Bank Holdings Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $52.00
CONSENSUS: $52.00
UPSIDE: 11.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 0.1% below fair value
Current Price $46.49
Bear Case $32.56 30.0% downside ($32.56 - $46.49) / $46.49 = -30.0% ROTCE 8.0% → 0.88x TBV
Fair Value $46.52 0.1% upside ($46.52 - $46.49) / $46.49 = 0.1% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.47x TBV
Bull Case $60.48 30.1% upside ($60.48 - $46.49) / $46.49 = 30.1% ROTCE 12.2% → 1.82x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.6%
8.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.71x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.52 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $77.01 (71% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly