Navient Corporation logo NAVI - Navient Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 15
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $8.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $8.67
UPSIDE: 2.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 71.5% below fair value
Current Price $8.44
Bear Case $20.72 145.5% upside ($20.72 - $8.44) / $8.44 = 145.5% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $29.60 250.7% upside ($29.60 - $8.44) / $8.44 = 250.7% ROTCE -4.1% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $38.47 355.8% upside ($38.47 - $8.44) / $8.44 = 355.8% ROTCE -4.7% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-4.1%
11.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-4.1%) vs. cost of equity (11.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.67 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.60 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-4.1%) is below the minimum investors require (11.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $8.67 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 322% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly