NAVI - Navient Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$8.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$9.00
LOW:
$8.00
MEDIAN:
$8.50
CONSENSUS:
$8.50
DOWNSIDE:
10.24%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
80% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-4.1%
10.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-4.1%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.45x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of -4.1% vs. 10.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $20.91 tangible book, implying $35.61 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$8.50
Analyst Range
$8.00 – $9.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
319%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-4.1%) is below the minimum investors require (10.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.50 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 319% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly