AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Murphy USA Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MUSA as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Murphy USA Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for MUSA is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MUSA?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MUSA's most recent reported fundamentals.

MUSA - Murphy USA Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $504.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 15.1% above fair value

Current Price $542.74

Bear Case $412.62 24.0% downside ($412.62 - $542.74) / $542.74 = -24.0% $24.68 × 16x P/E

Fair Value $471.56 13.1% downside ($471.56 - $542.74) / $542.74 = -13.1% $24.68 × 19x P/E

Bull Case $530.50 2.3% downside ($530.50 - $542.74) / $542.74 = -2.3% $24.68 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

18.8x

Adjusted EPS

24.68$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $504.25 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $471.56 per share.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples