AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Meritage Homes Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MTH as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Meritage Homes Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MTH is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MTH?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MTH's most recent reported fundamentals.

MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $86.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 47.0% below fair value

Current Price $74.13

Bear Case $105.58 42.4% upside ($105.58 - $74.13) / $74.13 = 42.4% $9.97 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $139.84 88.6% upside ($139.84 - $74.13) / $74.13 = 88.6% $9.97 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $174.11 134.9% upside ($174.11 - $74.13) / $74.13 = 134.9% $9.97 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

9.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.97)

Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $86.33 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $139.84 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $86.33 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 89% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing