Meritage Homes Corporation logo MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 19
HOLD 16
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $83.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $90.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $83.00
CONSENSUS: $83.25
UPSIDE: 29.61%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 53.8% below fair value
Current Price $64.23
Bear Case $104.89 63.3% upside ($104.89 - $64.23) / $64.23 = 63.3% $9.97 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $138.92 116.3% upside ($138.92 - $64.23) / $64.23 = 116.3% $9.97 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $172.96 169.3% upside ($172.96 - $64.23) / $64.23 = 169.3% $9.97 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
9.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.97)

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $83.25 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.92 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $83.25 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 96% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing