AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Meritage Homes Corporation as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MTH as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Meritage Homes Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MTH comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MTH?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MTH was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from MTH's most recent reported fundamentals.

MTH - Meritage Homes Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $76.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 67.5% below fair value

Current Price $58.25

Bear Case $139.58 139.6% upside ($139.58 - $58.25) / $58.25 = 139.6% $9.97 × 14x

Fair Value $179.46 208.1% upside ($179.46 - $58.25) / $58.25 = 208.1% $9.97 × 18x

Bull Case $219.34 276.5% upside ($219.34 - $58.25) / $58.25 = 276.5% $9.97 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

9.97$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.97)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 5.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $9.97 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $179.46 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 0.8x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (38 analysts) $76.75

Analyst Range $65.00 – $88.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 134%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $76.75 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 134% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing