MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$27.83
DETAILS
HIGH:
$32.00
LOW:
$25.50
MEDIAN:
$26.00
CONSENSUS:
$27.83
DOWNSIDE:
9.77%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-23.2%
7.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-23.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.19x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of -23.2% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $25.89 tangible book, implying $27.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.85.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-23.2%) is below the minimum investors require (7.8%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly