Midland States Bancorp, Inc. logo MSBI - Midland States Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $28.00
LOW: $25.50
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.50
DOWNSIDE: 4.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.2% below fair value
Current Price $27.63
Bear Case $19.57 29.2% downside ($19.57 - $27.63) / $27.63 = -29.2% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $27.96 1.2% upside ($27.96 - $27.63) / $27.63 = 1.2% ROTCE -23.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $36.35 31.6% upside ($36.35 - $27.63) / $27.63 = 31.6% ROTCE -26.6% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-23.2%
7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-23.2%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.07x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -23.2% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $25.89 tangible book, implying $27.96 per share. DDM cross-check: $23.78.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-23.2%) is below the minimum investors require (7.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly