MSA Safety Incorporated logo MSA - MSA Safety Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $222.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $235.00
LOW: $197.00
MEDIAN: $235.00
CONSENSUS: $222.33
UPSIDE: 30.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 1.6% below fair value
Current Price $170.95
Bear Case $122.97 28.1% downside ($122.97 - $170.95) / $170.95 = -28.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $173.67 1.6% upside ($173.67 - $170.95) / $170.95 = 1.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $224.29 31.2% upside ($224.29 - $170.95) / $170.95 = 31.2% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 23.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $222.33 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $173.67 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $222.33 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions