AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Morgan Stanley's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Morgan Stanley's fair value?

Fair value for MS is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MS?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MS's most recent reported fundamentals.

MS - Morgan Stanley

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $243.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 3.9% below fair value

Current Price $211.04

Bear Case $153.64 27.2% downside ($153.64 - $211.04) / $211.04 = -27.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.46x TBV

Fair Value $219.49 4.0% upside ($219.49 - $211.04) / $211.04 = 4.0% ROTCE 19.0% → 2.14x TBV

Bull Case $285.34 35.2% upside ($285.34 - $211.04) / $211.04 = 35.2% ROTCE 21.8% → 2.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

19.0%

Cost of Equity

11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.74x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.25 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.49 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $132.07 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly