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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 28
HOLD 24
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $203.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $211.00
LOW: $194.00
MEDIAN: $203.50
CONSENSUS: $203.00
UPSIDE: 0.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.1% below fair value
Current Price $201.03
Bear Case $143.78 28.5% downside ($143.78 - $201.03) / $201.03 = -28.5% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.47x TBV
Fair Value $205.40 2.2% upside ($205.40 - $201.03) / $201.03 = 2.2% ROTCE 19.0% → 2.16x TBV
Bull Case $267.03 32.8% upside ($267.03 - $201.03) / $201.03 = 32.8% ROTCE 21.8% → 2.57x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
10.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $203.00 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $205.40 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $121.20 (41% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly