Morgan Stanley logo MS - Morgan Stanley

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 29
HOLD 22
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $243.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $255.00
LOW: $235.00
MEDIAN: $241.50
CONSENSUS: $243.25
UPSIDE: 15.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.9% below fair value
Current Price $211.04
Bear Case $153.64 27.2% downside ($153.64 - $211.04) / $211.04 = -27.2% ROTCE 14.2% → 1.46x TBV
Fair Value $219.49 4.0% upside ($219.49 - $211.04) / $211.04 = 4.0% ROTCE 19.0% → 2.14x TBV
Bull Case $285.34 35.2% upside ($285.34 - $211.04) / $211.04 = 35.2% ROTCE 21.8% → 2.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.0%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.74x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.25 from 52 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.49 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $132.07 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly