AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MPC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MPC is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MPC?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MPC's most recent reported fundamentals.

MPC - Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $263.88 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 84.0% above fair value

Current Price $283.74

Bear Case $55.51 80.4% downside ($55.51 - $283.74) / $283.74 = -80.4% FCF $4195M × 10x

Fair Value $154.18 45.7% downside ($154.18 - $283.74) / $283.74 = -45.7% FCF $4767M × 13x

Bull Case $269.76 4.9% downside ($269.76 - $283.74) / $283.74 = -4.9% FCF $5339M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $263.88 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.18 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Debt per share ($105.11) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -86%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $263.88 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential