AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Marathon Petroleum Corporation as a Oil & Gas E&P business and values it using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MPC as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MPC comes from a FCF at Price Deck × Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Oil & Gas E&P classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MPC?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MPC was classified as Oil & Gas E&P and is valued using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, built from MPC's most recent reported fundamentals.

MPC - Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $426.30 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 184.7% above fair value

Current Price $455.03

Bear Case $123.16 72.9% downside ($123.16 - $455.03) / $455.03 = -72.9% FCF $6664M × 10x

Fair Value $159.85 64.9% downside ($159.85 - $455.03) / $455.03 = -64.9% FCF $5950M × 13x

Bull Case $181.86 60.0% downside ($181.86 - $455.03) / $455.03 = -60.0% FCF $5236M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 27.5x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $159.85 per share. Range: $123.16 (bear) to $181.86 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $426.30

Analyst Range $321.00 – $510.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

⚠ If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -73%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $426.30 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential