McCormick & Company, Incorporated logo MKC - McCormick & Company, Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $61.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $52.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $61.40
UPSIDE: 17.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.3% below fair value
Current Price $52.45
Bear Case $53.50 2.0% upside ($53.50 - $52.45) / $52.45 = 2.0% $3.91 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $64.96 23.9% upside ($64.96 - $52.45) / $52.45 = 23.9% $3.91 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $76.43 45.7% upside ($76.43 - $52.45) / $52.45 = 45.7% $3.91 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
3.91$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.40 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $64.96 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 33%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples