AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation as a Oil & Gas E&P business and values it using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag MGY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MGY comes from a FCF at Price Deck × Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Oil & Gas E&P classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value MGY?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. MGY was classified as Oil & Gas E&P and is valued using FCF at Price Deck × Multiple, built from MGY's most recent reported fundamentals.

MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $33.60 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 54.4% above fair value

Current Price $26.15

Bear Case $8.34 68.1% downside ($8.34 - $26.15) / $26.15 = -68.1% FCF $299M × 8x

Fair Value $16.94 35.2% downside ($16.94 - $26.15) / $26.15 = -35.2% FCF $427M × 11x

Bull Case $28.40 8.6% upside ($28.40 - $26.15) / $26.15 = 8.6% FCF $555M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 11x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.94 per share. Range: $8.34 (bear) to $28.40 (bull).

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $33.60

Analyst Range $29.00 – $38.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 50%

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $33.60 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential