AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MGY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MGY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MGY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MGY's most recent reported fundamentals.

MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $29.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 17.5% above fair value

Current Price $29.24

Bear Case $12.23 58.2% downside ($12.23 - $29.24) / $29.24 = -58.2% FCF $286M × 8x

Fair Value $24.88 14.9% downside ($24.88 - $29.24) / $29.24 = -14.9% FCF $409M × 11x

Bull Case $41.74 42.8% upside ($41.74 - $29.24) / $29.24 = 42.8% FCF $532M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.00 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.88 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential