AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MGY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MGY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MGY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MGY's most recent reported fundamentals.

MGY - Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $30.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 6.6% above fair value

Current Price $26.89

Bear Case $12.40 53.9% downside ($12.40 - $26.89) / $26.89 = -53.9% FCF $286M × 8x

Fair Value $25.21 6.2% downside ($25.21 - $26.89) / $26.89 = -6.2% FCF $409M × 11x

Bull Case $42.30 57.3% upside ($42.30 - $26.89) / $26.89 = 57.3% FCF $532M × 14x

Adjust Assumptions

Oil Price ($/bbl)

75.0$/bbl

EV/FCF Multiple

11.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.33 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $25.21 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential