MCY - Mercury General Corporation
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$90.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$90.00
LOW:
$90.00
MEDIAN:
$90.00
CONSENSUS:
$90.00
DOWNSIDE:
12.01%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
26.9%
9.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (26.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.82x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 26.9% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.98x on $36.25 tangible book, implying $144.10 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$90.00
Analyst Range
$90.00 – $90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly