AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes McDonald's Corporation's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag MCD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is McDonald's Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for MCD is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value MCD?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from MCD's most recent reported fundamentals.

MCD - McDonald's Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $347.33 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 13.3% below fair value

Current Price $282.27

Bear Case $275.42 2.4% downside ($275.42 - $282.27) / $282.27 = -2.4% $12.07 × 22x P/E

Fair Value $325.50 15.3% upside ($325.50 - $282.27) / $282.27 = 15.3% $12.07 × 26x P/E

Bull Case $375.58 33.1% upside ($375.58 - $282.27) / $282.27 = 33.1% $12.07 × 30x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

26.0x

Adjusted EPS

12.07$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (26x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $347.33 from 62 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $325.50 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $444.27 (above our primary estimate by 42%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples