Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. logo MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $97.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $97.00
MEDIAN: $97.00
CONSENSUS: $97.00
UPSIDE: 6.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.6% above fair value
Current Price $91.21
Bear Case $49.66 45.5% downside ($49.66 - $91.21) / $91.21 = -45.5% ROTCE 7.2% → 0.53x TBV
Fair Value $70.95 22.2% downside ($70.95 - $91.21) / $91.21 = -22.2% ROTCE 9.6% → 0.94x TBV
Bull Case $92.24 1.1% upside ($92.24 - $91.21) / $91.21 = 1.1% ROTCE 11.0% → 1.18x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
9.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.28x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 9.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.94x on $71.05 tangible book, implying $70.95 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (9.6%) is below the minimum investors require (9.9%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly