Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp. logo MCB - Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $100.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $100.00
LOW: $100.00
MEDIAN: $100.00
CONSENSUS: $100.00
UPSIDE: 3.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.1% above fair value
Current Price $96.88
Bear Case $67.72 30.1% downside ($67.72 - $96.88) / $96.88 = -30.1% ROTCE 7.2% → 0.53x TBV
Fair Value $96.75 0.1% downside ($96.75 - $96.88) / $96.88 = -0.1% ROTCE 9.6% → 0.93x TBV
Bull Case $125.78 29.8% upside ($125.78 - $96.88) / $96.88 = 29.8% ROTCE 11.0% → 1.17x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
10.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (10.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.62x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 10.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.93x on $59.94 tangible book, implying $96.75 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $100.00
Analyst Range $100.00 – $100.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 3%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (9.6%) is below the minimum investors require (10.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly