Mastercard Incorporated logo MA - Mastercard Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 50
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $651.31 DETAILS
HIGH: $739.00
LOW: $554.00
MEDIAN: $657.50
CONSENSUS: $651.31
UPSIDE: 20.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.6% below fair value
Current Price $539.66
Bear Case $409.14 24.2% downside ($409.14 - $539.66) / $539.66 = -24.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $725.54 34.4% upside ($725.54 - $539.66) / $539.66 = 34.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,111.25 105.9% upside ($1,111.25 - $539.66) / $539.66 = 105.9% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 29.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 14.2% vs our 18.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $651.31 from 64 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $725.54 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions